Welcome! I am a macroeconomist working at UCSC.
Pronunciation: He-Ka-Ru Sigh-Joe (Ka as in karma)
We develop theoretical and methodological framework to apply diagnostic expectations to a large class of recursive macro models, with a focus on implications of memory recall based on distant past.
We propose a new propagation mechanism based on firm-level confidence dynamics that challenges and improves upon standard New Keynesian frictions.
Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks
International Economic Review, 2020.
The interaction of ambiguity aversion and limited capital market participation magnifies the impact of fiscal uncertainty shocks on economic activity because concerns about redistribution have first-order effects.
Technology Shocks and Hours Revisited: Evidence from Household Data
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2019.
Contrary to the aggregate evidence, labor supply responses to technology shocks at the household level indicate that the data is inconsistent with the sticky price view of the business cycle.
The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017.
A dynamic general equilibrium model where agents learn about macro fundamentals through investment. The endogenously countercyclical uncertainty amplifies output fluctuations by 16%.
Estimating DSGE Models Using Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Journal of Econometrics, 2013.
The common practice of estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using seasonally adjusted data leads to sizeable distortions in estimated parameters.
The Japanese Depression in the Interwar Period: A General Equilibrium Analysis
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Topics, 2008.
The increase in markups due to cartelization can explain a substantial fraction of Japan’s weak recovery from the Great Depression.
Volatility Shocks in Networks (Revised version coming soon)
I show how sector-specific changes in volatility propagate through input-output networks and affect macroeconomic variables.
Discussion of “What Do Sectoral Dynamics Tell Us About the Origins of Business Cycles?” by Matthes and Schwartzman, Workshop on Methods and Applications for DSGE Models, October 2019
Discussion of “The Origins and Effects of Uncertainty Shocks” by Bianchi, Kung and Tirskikh, Workshop on Methods and Applications for DSGE Models, October 2018
Discussion of “Are Supply Curves Convex? Implications for State-Dependent Responses to Shocks” by Boehm, Flaaen and Pandalai-Nayar, West Coast Workshop in International Finance, November 2017
Discussion of “Sentiment and the Business Cycle” by Fabio Milani, California Macroeconomics Conference, October 2016
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